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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+4.09vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.41+1.59vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+3.27vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+3.20vs Predicted
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5University of California at Berkeley0.74+4.05vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+3.73vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.90+0.48vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.98+1.06vs Predicted
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9Texas A&M University0.10+2.25vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University0.19+1.20vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.70+3.28vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-0.34+0.59vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California1.40-7.41vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.52-0.43vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis0.07-4.74vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-2.77vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.27-9.44vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-0.39-4.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09California Poly Maritime Academy1.9212.6%1st Place
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3.59University of Hawaii2.4124.2%1st Place
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6.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.459.3%1st Place
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7.2University of California at Santa Barbara1.226.0%1st Place
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9.05University of California at Berkeley0.744.0%1st Place
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9.73University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.6%1st Place
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7.48University of Southern California0.905.7%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Berkeley0.983.5%1st Place
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11.25Texas A&M University0.102.8%1st Place
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11.2San Diego State University0.192.1%1st Place
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14.28University of California at San Diego-0.701.1%1st Place
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12.59University of California at Los Angeles-0.341.3%1st Place
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5.59University of Southern California1.4011.6%1st Place
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13.57Arizona State University-0.521.1%1st Place
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10.26University of California at Davis0.072.6%1st Place
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13.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.261.3%1st Place
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7.56Northwestern University1.276.0%1st Place
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13.99Arizona State University-0.391.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Mueller | 12.6% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 24.2% | 17.8% | 15.2% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Erisman | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Olsen | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Morgana Manti | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Ingram | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 3.8% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 16.0% | 24.8% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 10.1% |
| Luke Harris | 11.6% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Down | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 15.2% | 16.4% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Florence Duff | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 14.2% |
| Jake Weinstein | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 16.8% | 21.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.