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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii1.05+6.45vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+2.77vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.90+4.14vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.40+1.36vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+1.82vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+0.17vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+5.98vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.74+0.61vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.27-1.70vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.98-1.37vs Predicted
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11Texas A&M University0.10+0.20vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-0.70+2.10vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University0.19-2.01vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.34-1.51vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-5.45vs Predicted
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16Arizona State University-0.39-2.04vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis0.07-6.94vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-0.52-4.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.45University of Hawaii1.056.8%1st Place
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4.77California Poly Maritime Academy1.9215.2%1st Place
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7.14University of Southern California0.908.2%1st Place
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5.36University of Southern California1.4013.1%1st Place
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6.82University of California at Santa Barbara1.228.2%1st Place
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6.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.4511.1%1st Place
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12.98Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.261.5%1st Place
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8.61University of California at Berkeley0.745.6%1st Place
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7.3Northwestern University1.277.0%1st Place
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8.63University of California at Berkeley0.985.5%1st Place
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11.2Texas A&M University0.103.0%1st Place
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14.1University of California at San Diego-0.701.0%1st Place
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10.99San Diego State University0.192.5%1st Place
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12.49University of California at Los Angeles-0.342.4%1st Place
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9.55University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.6%1st Place
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13.96Arizona State University-0.390.8%1st Place
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10.06University of California at Davis0.073.5%1st Place
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13.42Arizona State University-0.521.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Bonsager | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 15.2% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Luke Harris | 13.1% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 11.1% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 13.3% | 12.8% |
| Katherine Olsen | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Jake Weinstein | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Ingram | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 24.5% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 3.1% |
| Rigel Mummers | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 11.6% | 10.7% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 16.2% | 22.7% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Andrew Down | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 17.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.