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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.40+4.30vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+11.10vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.98+5.63vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+2.85vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+0.96vs Predicted
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6Texas A&M University0.10+5.20vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii1.05+0.68vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis0.07+1.95vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy1.92-4.23vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.27-2.84vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.74-2.40vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University0.19-0.74vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.34-0.31vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California0.90-6.84vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.86-5.82vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.70-1.87vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-0.52-3.60vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-0.39-4.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.3University of Southern California1.4012.6%1st Place
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13.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.261.3%1st Place
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8.63University of California at Berkeley0.985.0%1st Place
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6.85University of California at Santa Barbara1.228.9%1st Place
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5.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.4511.8%1st Place
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11.2Texas A&M University0.102.8%1st Place
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7.68University of Hawaii1.056.0%1st Place
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9.95University of California at Davis0.073.2%1st Place
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4.77California Poly Maritime Academy1.9216.4%1st Place
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7.16Northwestern University1.277.4%1st Place
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8.6University of California at Berkeley0.744.8%1st Place
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11.26San Diego State University0.192.0%1st Place
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12.69University of California at Los Angeles-0.341.4%1st Place
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7.16University of Southern California0.908.6%1st Place
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9.18University of California at Santa Cruz0.864.4%1st Place
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14.13University of California at San Diego-0.701.2%1st Place
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13.4Arizona State University-0.521.2%1st Place
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13.97Arizona State University-0.390.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Harris | 12.6% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 14.8% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Erisman | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Garrett Henderson | 11.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Ingram | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 4.7% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 16.4% | 15.0% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Olsen | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 3.7% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 9.7% |
| Morgana Manti | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 16.4% | 23.4% |
| Andrew Down | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 18.2% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 17.2% | 21.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.