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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University1.47+2.86vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.81+3.70vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy1.62+0.78vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27+5.74vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz1.45-0.92vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35+0.68vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51+3.54vs Predicted
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8Santa Clara University-1.38+6.65vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley-0.84+3.05vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+3.53vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University-1.09+2.52vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.80+0.06vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.99+0.03vs Predicted
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14California State University Monterey Bay-1.32+0.39vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-1.23vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-1.84+0.62vs Predicted
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17California State University Monterey Bay-2.10+0.44vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-0.86-5.66vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-2.05-3.98vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-1.19-6.22vs Predicted
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21University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29-11.43vs Predicted
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22University of California at Davis-1.98-5.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.86San Diego State University1.4720.8%1st Place
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5.7California Poly Maritime Academy0.8110.8%1st Place
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3.78California Poly Maritime Academy1.6219.8%1st Place
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9.74University of California at Santa Cruz-0.273.5%1st Place
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4.08University of California at Santa Cruz1.4515.6%1st Place
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6.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.356.5%1st Place
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10.54University of California at Santa Barbara-0.512.6%1st Place
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14.65Santa Clara University-1.381.1%1st Place
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12.05University of California at Berkeley-0.841.7%1st Place
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13.53Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.941.8%1st Place
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13.52Arizona State University-1.091.1%1st Place
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12.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.802.2%1st Place
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13.03University of California at Berkeley-0.992.1%1st Place
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14.39California State University Monterey Bay-1.320.9%1st Place
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13.77University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.6%1st Place
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16.62University of California at Davis-1.840.5%1st Place
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17.44California State University Monterey Bay-2.100.5%1st Place
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12.34San Diego State University-0.861.5%1st Place
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15.02University of California at San Diego-2.050.9%1st Place
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13.78San Diego State University-1.191.0%1st Place
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9.57University of California at Santa Cruz-0.293.0%1st Place
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16.83University of California at Davis-1.980.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Smith | 20.8% | 17.3% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolai Perez | 10.8% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 19.8% | 18.4% | 15.7% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emilia McNabb | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 15.6% | 18.7% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% |
| Bianca Weber | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Briar | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 3.3% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| Micaela Jorcino | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.1% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.2% |
| Liam Williams | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% |
| Nathan Baer | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 16.6% |
| Philip Yang | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 15.5% | 24.4% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% |
| Sophia Cerretti | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Lucas Elliott | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Stephanie Ng | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 18.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.