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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.41+2.59vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+3.15vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+6.72vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University1.27+3.67vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.40+0.54vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.90+1.30vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45-0.66vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.22-0.82vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+4.12vs Predicted
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10Texas A&M University0.10+1.46vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University0.19+0.33vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.98-3.13vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.70+1.27vs Predicted
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14Arizona State University-0.52-0.51vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley0.74-6.07vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.34-3.36vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis0.07-6.71vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-0.39-3.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.59University of Hawaii2.4123.1%1st Place
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5.15California Poly Maritime Academy1.9212.6%1st Place
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9.72University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.3%1st Place
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7.67Northwestern University1.275.5%1st Place
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5.54University of Southern California1.4010.9%1st Place
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7.3University of Southern California0.906.1%1st Place
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6.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.458.7%1st Place
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7.18University of California at Santa Barbara1.227.4%1st Place
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13.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.261.2%1st Place
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11.46Texas A&M University0.101.8%1st Place
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11.33San Diego State University0.192.2%1st Place
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8.87University of California at Berkeley0.985.5%1st Place
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14.27University of California at San Diego-0.700.6%1st Place
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13.49Arizona State University-0.520.9%1st Place
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8.93University of California at Berkeley0.744.7%1st Place
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12.64University of California at Los Angeles-0.341.5%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Davis0.072.9%1st Place
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14.12Arizona State University-0.391.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Anderson | 23.1% | 17.7% | 16.4% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 12.6% | 13.2% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Jake Weinstein | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Luke Harris | 10.9% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Garrett Henderson | 8.7% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Erisman | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Florence Duff | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 14.2% | 12.1% |
| Ryan Ingram | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.8% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 4.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 16.1% | 25.2% |
| Andrew Down | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 16.2% |
| Katherine Olsen | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 9.8% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 15.3% | 23.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.