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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+9.85vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+2.63vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.67+5.46vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.33+5.71vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.78+3.11vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.61+2.54vs Predicted
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7University of Miami3.69+1.31vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.98-0.60vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida4.17-2.73vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.37-0.59vs Predicted
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11Texas A&M University at Galveston2.83+0.70vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.68+0.53vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.02-2.29vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College3.28-3.98vs Predicted
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15Boston College4.43-9.51vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22-5.97vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.55-4.36vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.43-0.19vs Predicted
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19Washington College0.57-1.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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4.63Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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8.46Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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9.71U. S. Naval Academy3.330.0%1st Place
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8.11College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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8.54Roger Williams University3.610.1%1st Place
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8.31University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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7.4Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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6.27University of South Florida4.170.1%1st Place
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9.41Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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11.7Texas A&M University at Galveston2.830.0%1st Place
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12.53University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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10.71U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.020.0%1st Place
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10.02SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
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5.49Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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10.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.0%1st Place
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12.64University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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17.81Queen's University0.430.0%1st Place
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17.38Washington College0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wallace | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Chris Barnard | 17.1% | 15.3% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Erik Bowers | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| David Hernandez | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Colin Smith | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Marks | 10.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Hutchings | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Atwood | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 0.9% |
| Michael Russom | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 16.1% | 6.0% | 1.3% |
| Evan Siepert | 2.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Randall Hartranft | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Anne Haeger | 14.1% | 11.7% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Zacher | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Steven Pelissier | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 12.5% | 17.6% | 8.1% | 1.5% |
| Joshua Brown | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 29.4% | 52.6% |
| Karl Kurland | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.2% | 6.9% | 35.7% | 42.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.