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📊 Prediction Accuracy
54.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy0.81+4.66vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.47+1.76vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Cruz1.45+0.96vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.62-0.27vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz-0.29+4.45vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-1.09+7.66vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.35-0.39vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.94+5.34vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.27+0.38vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara-0.51+0.29vs Predicted
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11Santa Clara University-1.38+3.39vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University-1.09+1.21vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.88-0.94vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.05+1.16vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-0.99-2.41vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay-2.10+1.07vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis-1.98-0.23vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-1.84-1.88vs Predicted
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19San Diego State University-0.86-7.03vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-1.19-6.16vs Predicted
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21California State University Monterey Bay-1.32-7.08vs Predicted
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22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.83-5.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.66California Poly Maritime Academy0.819.4%1st Place
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3.76San Diego State University1.4719.9%1st Place
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3.96University of California at Santa Cruz1.4517.9%1st Place
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3.73California Poly Maritime Academy1.6219.4%1st Place
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9.45University of California at Santa Cruz-0.293.3%1st Place
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13.66University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.5%1st Place
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6.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.356.8%1st Place
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13.34Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.940.9%1st Place
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9.38University of California at Santa Cruz-0.274.2%1st Place
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10.29University of California at Santa Barbara-0.513.0%1st Place
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14.39Santa Clara University-1.381.1%1st Place
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13.21Arizona State University-1.091.6%1st Place
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12.06University of California at Berkeley-0.881.8%1st Place
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15.16University of California at San Diego-2.050.8%1st Place
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12.59University of California at Berkeley-0.992.1%1st Place
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17.07California State University Monterey Bay-2.100.7%1st Place
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16.77University of California at Davis-1.980.5%1st Place
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16.12University of California at Davis-1.840.8%1st Place
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11.97San Diego State University-0.861.8%1st Place
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13.84San Diego State University-1.191.1%1st Place
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13.92California State University Monterey Bay-1.321.0%1st Place
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16.05Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.830.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Perez | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 19.9% | 18.6% | 14.3% | 14.0% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Buster Baylis | 17.9% | 16.4% | 16.9% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Myers | 19.4% | 18.9% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Elliott | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Liam Williams | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Emilia McNabb | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Kestenbaum | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Chase VanDerveer | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% |
| Camden Wacha | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% |
| Viola Phillips Frank | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Maria Gunness | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Aidan Ramblas | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Philip Yang | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 21.4% |
| Stephanie Ng | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 18.0% |
| Nathan Baer | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 13.2% |
| Marley Daniel | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Sophia Cerretti | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.3% |
| Phoebe Liermann | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% |
| Paul Munsell | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 13.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.