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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.41+2.54vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.40+3.53vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+4.03vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy1.92+1.30vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+1.14vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+3.68vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+6.29vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.27-0.29vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley0.98-0.06vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.74-1.17vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.90-3.72vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis0.07-1.63vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University0.19-1.71vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-0.34-1.23vs Predicted
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15Texas A&M University0.10-3.42vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.70-1.56vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-0.52-3.68vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-0.39-4.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.54University of Hawaii2.4124.2%1st Place
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5.53University of Southern California1.4011.8%1st Place
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7.03University of California at Santa Barbara1.227.5%1st Place
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5.3California Poly Maritime Academy1.9210.8%1st Place
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6.14Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.458.1%1st Place
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9.68University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.4%1st Place
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13.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.261.3%1st Place
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7.71Northwestern University1.275.9%1st Place
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8.94University of California at Berkeley0.983.9%1st Place
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8.83University of California at Berkeley0.744.2%1st Place
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7.28University of Southern California0.906.7%1st Place
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10.37University of California at Davis0.073.4%1st Place
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11.29San Diego State University0.191.9%1st Place
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12.77University of California at Los Angeles-0.341.7%1st Place
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11.58Texas A&M University0.102.1%1st Place
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14.44University of California at San Diego-0.700.9%1st Place
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13.32Arizona State University-0.521.2%1st Place
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13.97Arizona State University-0.391.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Anderson | 24.2% | 18.0% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Harris | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 10.8% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Henderson | 8.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Florence Duff | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 14.1% |
| Jake Weinstein | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Katherine Olsen | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Morgana Manti | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Braedon Hansen | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Owen Gormely | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 11.0% |
| Ryan Ingram | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 3.6% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 17.4% | 25.7% |
| Andrew Down | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 16.1% | 15.6% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 21.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.