← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.45+5.12vs Predicted
-
2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26+11.24vs Predicted
-
3University of Hawaii2.41+0.46vs Predicted
-
4University of California at Santa Barbara1.22+2.99vs Predicted
-
5University of Southern California0.90+2.20vs Predicted
-
6Northwestern University1.27+1.43vs Predicted
-
7University of Southern California1.09+0.36vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Berkeley0.74+0.99vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Santa Cruz0.86+0.50vs Predicted
-
10University of California at Los Angeles-0.34+2.56vs Predicted
-
11California Poly Maritime Academy1.92-6.03vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Berkeley0.98-3.13vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Davis0.07-2.86vs Predicted
-
14Texas A&M University0.10-2.66vs Predicted
-
15Arizona State University-0.52-1.47vs Predicted
-
16University of California at San Diego-0.70-1.91vs Predicted
-
17San Diego State University0.19-5.88vs Predicted
-
18Arizona State University-0.39-3.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.459.6%1st Place
-
13.24Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.261.5%1st Place
-
3.46University of Hawaii2.4125.1%1st Place
-
6.99University of California at Santa Barbara1.227.1%1st Place
-
7.2University of Southern California0.906.2%1st Place
-
7.43Northwestern University1.276.6%1st Place
-
7.36University of Southern California1.096.8%1st Place
-
8.99University of California at Berkeley0.743.5%1st Place
-
9.5University of California at Santa Cruz0.863.8%1st Place
-
12.56University of California at Los Angeles-0.341.5%1st Place
-
4.97California Poly Maritime Academy1.9213.0%1st Place
-
8.87University of California at Berkeley0.985.0%1st Place
-
10.14University of California at Davis0.072.9%1st Place
-
11.34Texas A&M University0.102.5%1st Place
-
13.53Arizona State University-0.521.0%1st Place
-
14.09University of California at San Diego-0.701.0%1st Place
-
11.12San Diego State University0.192.4%1st Place
-
14.07Arizona State University-0.390.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Henderson | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 13.4% | 14.3% |
| Erik Anderson | 25.1% | 18.2% | 16.4% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Erisman | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jake Weinstein | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Maximilian Conze | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Olsen | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Rigel Mummers | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 10.2% |
| Nicholas Mueller | 13.0% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Braedon Hansen | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Ryan Ingram | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 4.4% |
| Andrew Down | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 15.3% | 18.4% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 16.1% | 22.6% |
| Owen Gormely | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
| Sadie Hoberman | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 22.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.