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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.98+6.20vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.33+7.77vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+8.01vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.74+0.59vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.61+3.82vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.43-0.44vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.44+2.40vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.67+0.66vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania2.68+3.02vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.37-0.51vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida4.17-4.62vs Predicted
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12Texas A&M University at Galveston2.83+0.08vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22-3.04vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.78-5.99vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-5.69vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.28-6.20vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont2.55-4.29vs Predicted
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18Washington College0.57-0.39vs Predicted
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19Queen's University0.43-1.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.2Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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9.77U. S. Naval Academy3.330.0%1st Place
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11.01St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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4.59Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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8.82Roger Williams University3.610.0%1st Place
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5.56Boston College4.430.1%1st Place
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9.4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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8.66Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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12.02University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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9.49Tufts University3.370.0%1st Place
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6.38University of South Florida4.170.1%1st Place
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12.08Texas A&M University at Galveston2.830.0%1st Place
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9.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.0%1st Place
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8.01College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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9.31Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.0%1st Place
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9.8SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
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12.71University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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17.61Washington College0.570.0%1st Place
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17.63Queen's University0.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Smith | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 3.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Chris Barnard | 17.3% | 15.1% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Anne Haeger | 13.0% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Horrocks | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Michael Russom | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 7.2% | 1.4% |
| William Hutchings | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Zachary Marks | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Atwood | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Timothy Zacher | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Erik Bowers | 6.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| David Alfonso | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Randall Hartranft | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Steven Pelissier | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 10.1% | 1.2% |
| Karl Kurland | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 7.9% | 34.4% | 44.1% |
| Joshua Brown | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 29.9% | 50.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.