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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.98+6.01vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.74+2.51vs Predicted
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3University of Miami3.69+5.21vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.44+5.19vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.61+3.61vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.37+3.33vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.67+1.27vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida4.17-1.48vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.33+0.40vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.68+2.12vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College3.28-1.16vs Predicted
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12Texas A&M University at Galveston2.83-0.06vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.78-5.48vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-3.15vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont2.55-2.52vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-6.95vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.22-7.01vs Predicted
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18Queen's University0.43-0.16vs Predicted
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19Washington College0.57-1.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.01Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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4.51Georgetown University4.740.2%1st Place
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8.21University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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9.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.440.0%1st Place
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8.61Roger Williams University3.610.0%1st Place
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9.33Tufts University3.370.1%1st Place
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8.27Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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6.52University of South Florida4.170.1%1st Place
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9.4U. S. Naval Academy3.330.1%1st Place
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12.12University of Pennsylvania2.680.0%1st Place
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9.84SUNY Maritime College3.280.0%1st Place
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11.94Texas A&M University at Galveston2.830.0%1st Place
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7.52College of Charleston3.780.1%1st Place
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10.85St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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12.48University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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9.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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9.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.220.0%1st Place
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17.84Queen's University0.430.0%1st Place
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17.34Washington College0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Smith | 7.6% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Chris Barnard | 18.0% | 16.6% | 12.1% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Hernandez | 7.1% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Eric Horrocks | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Pimentel | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| William Hutchings | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Marks | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ravelo | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Russom | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 6.4% | 1.1% |
| Randall Hartranft | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Jonathan Atwood | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 5.4% | 0.6% |
| Erik Bowers | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 1.4% |
| David Alfonso | 5.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Timothy Zacher | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Brown | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 29.8% | 53.3% |
| Karl Kurland | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 7.7% | 34.0% | 42.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.