Race 3A

william-mary-spring-open

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Matthew Roleke 23.4% 19.3% 16.4% 14.3% 11.3% 6.9% 5.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Spencer Charney 24.3% 21.3% 17.1% 14.5% 11.0% 6.5% 3.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Jeremy McCauley 14.1% 14.5% 16.2% 13.5% 16.5% 11.5% 8.2% 3.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Brendon Wilkins 11.6% 15.2% 14.0% 16.6% 12.1% 14.8% 8.8% 5.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Frederick Piasecki 8.3% 7.8% 8.9% 10.1% 14.1% 15.9% 16.6% 10.4% 6.0% 1.9% 0.0%
Nathan Gibson 4.0% 4.2% 4.9% 6.4% 6.4% 11.2% 15.8% 18.3% 19.0% 9.8% 0.0%
Filip Stevanovic 9.1% 11.9% 12.6% 14.6% 16.4% 14.1% 10.7% 7.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Dylan Brady 1.3% 2.0% 2.9% 3.9% 3.6% 6.2% 9.8% 17.3% 22.8% 30.2% 0.0%
Michael Molman 1.8% 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 3.4% 4.2% 8.3% 14.0% 21.6% 41.0% 0.0%
Nathan Gibson 4.0% 4.2% 4.9% 6.4% 6.4% 11.2% 15.8% 18.3% 19.0% 9.8% 0.0%
Jacob Stoner 2.1% 2.7% 4.7% 3.8% 5.2% 8.7% 12.8% 20.3% 24.0% 15.7% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.