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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University3.27+2.82vs Predicted
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2University of Rochester1.17+7.62vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+2.41vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.06+0.35vs Predicted
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5Columbia University2.87-0.12vs Predicted
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6Rochester Institute of Technology0.56+5.46vs Predicted
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7Rutgers University0.80+3.70vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.32-1.59vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester1.17+0.62vs Predicted
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10Fordham University2.50-4.24vs Predicted
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11Queen's University1.77-2.93vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-6.27vs Predicted
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13Colgate University1.24-3.20vs Predicted
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14Colgate University1.24-4.20vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College0.20-2.50vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy0.90-5.43vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.72-6.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.82Cornell University3.270.2%1st Place
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9.62University of Rochester1.170.0%1st Place
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5.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.1%1st Place
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4.35SUNY Maritime College3.060.2%1st Place
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4.88Columbia University2.870.1%1st Place
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11.46Rochester Institute of Technology0.560.0%1st Place
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10.7Rutgers University0.800.0%1st Place
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6.41Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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9.62University of Rochester1.170.0%1st Place
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5.76Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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8.07Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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5.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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9.8Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.8Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.5Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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10.57U. S. Military Academy0.900.0%1st Place
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10.92Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Alley | 20.1% | 18.8% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Potter Hodgson | 10.6% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 16.1% | 15.4% | 14.5% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Hannon | 13.4% | 11.9% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fulcher | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 14.7% | 17.0% | 17.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ross Nuechterlein | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 4.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 8.6% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 12.6% | 17.3% | 35.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Lovo | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 13.5% | 15.9% | 13.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.