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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Columbia University2.87+3.77vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.06+2.19vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.50+2.74vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.27-0.14vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+0.61vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-0.41vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester1.17+2.72vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy0.90+2.61vs Predicted
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9Rochester Institute of Technology0.56+2.48vs Predicted
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10Rutgers University0.80+0.84vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.32-4.61vs Predicted
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12Colgate University1.24-2.21vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.20-0.56vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester1.17-4.28vs Predicted
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15Colgate University1.24-5.21vs Predicted
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16Drexel University0.72-4.97vs Predicted
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18Queen's University1.77-10.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.77Columbia University2.870.1%1st Place
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4.19SUNY Maritime College3.060.2%1st Place
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5.74Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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3.86Cornell University3.270.2%1st Place
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5.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.1%1st Place
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5.59U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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9.72University of Rochester1.170.0%1st Place
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10.61U. S. Military Academy0.900.0%1st Place
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11.48Rochester Institute of Technology0.560.0%1st Place
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10.84Rutgers University0.800.0%1st Place
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6.39Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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9.79Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.44Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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9.72University of Rochester1.170.0%1st Place
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9.79Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.03Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
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7.93Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Hannon | 13.7% | 12.7% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 15.5% | 17.1% | 13.9% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 19.9% | 17.2% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Potter Hodgson | 10.5% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 9.3% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Lovo | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fulcher | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 17.1% | 16.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ross Nuechterlein | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 18.1% | 34.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 16.3% | 13.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Sullivan | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.