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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Queen's University1.77+6.88vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+3.49vs Predicted
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3University of Rochester1.17+6.69vs Predicted
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4Cornell University3.27-0.18vs Predicted
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5Rochester Institute of Technology0.56+6.43vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.50-0.11vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-1.39vs Predicted
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8Columbia University2.87-3.19vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.32-2.69vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College3.06-5.59vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College0.20+1.36vs Predicted
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12Rutgers University0.80-0.90vs Predicted
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13U. S. Military Academy0.90-2.30vs Predicted
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14Colgate University1.24-4.49vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester1.17-5.31vs Predicted
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16Colgate University1.24-6.49vs Predicted
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17Drexel University0.72-6.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.88Queen's University1.770.0%1st Place
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5.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.1%1st Place
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9.69University of Rochester1.170.0%1st Place
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3.82Cornell University3.270.2%1st Place
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11.43Rochester Institute of Technology0.560.0%1st Place
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5.89Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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5.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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4.81Columbia University2.870.1%1st Place
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6.31Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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4.41SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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12.36Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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11.1Rutgers University0.800.0%1st Place
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10.7U. S. Military Academy0.900.0%1st Place
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9.51Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.69University of Rochester1.170.0%1st Place
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9.51Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.0Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Sullivan | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Potter Hodgson | 9.1% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 20.4% | 17.3% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Fulcher | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 17.8% | 18.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 8.3% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Hannon | 14.2% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 14.6% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 18.4% | 32.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ross Nuechterlein | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 14.1% | 15.7% | 12.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Lovo | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 14.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.