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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Santa Barbara City College2.29+5.33vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+3.28vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley1.53+6.19vs Predicted
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4Santa Clara University2.04+3.15vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+3.98vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.95-1.79vs Predicted
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7Stanford University1.60+1.86vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.96-0.32vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California2.33-3.02vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.15+4.15vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.39+2.44vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.52+1.30vs Predicted
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13University of Washington0.95-1.89vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.72-5.56vs Predicted
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15University of California at Irvine1.06-4.19vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles1.43-6.64vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.11-2.05vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.24-2.53vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands0.15-4.85vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-0.29-4.69vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands0.15-6.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.33Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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5.28California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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9.19University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
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7.15Santa Clara University2.040.1%1st Place
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8.98Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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4.21University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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8.86Stanford University1.600.1%1st Place
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7.68University of Southern California1.960.1%1st Place
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5.98University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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14.15California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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13.44University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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13.3University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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11.11University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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8.44University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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10.81University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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9.36University of California at Los Angeles1.430.0%1st Place
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14.95University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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15.47University of California at Los Angeles-0.240.0%1st Place
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14.15California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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15.31San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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14.15California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silas Barton | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 12.6% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Kirby | 6.3% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 20.7% | 15.7% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Yakutis | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 10.4% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 16.0% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Paulsen | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 13.8% | 15.6% | 20.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hallie Muller | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 13.7% | 15.0% | 25.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 16.0% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Newt Cutcliffe | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 17.1% | 24.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 16.0% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.