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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Santa Clara University2.04+5.98vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+2.20vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+2.20vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.33+2.01vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+3.93vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California1.96+1.29vs Predicted
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7Santa Barbara City College2.29-0.80vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine1.06+3.03vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands0.15+4.93vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.95+1.21vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California1.18-0.66vs Predicted
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12Stanford University1.60-2.99vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley1.53-4.21vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.52-1.00vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.39-1.87vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles1.43-6.79vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-0.11-2.11vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-0.24-2.60vs Predicted
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19San Diego State University-0.29-3.76vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands0.15-6.07vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands0.15-7.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.98Santa Clara University2.040.1%1st Place
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4.2University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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5.2California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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6.01University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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8.93Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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7.29University of Southern California1.960.1%1st Place
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6.2Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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11.03University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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13.93California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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11.21University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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10.34University of Southern California1.180.0%1st Place
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9.01Stanford University1.600.0%1st Place
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8.79University of California at Berkeley1.530.1%1st Place
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13.0University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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13.13University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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9.21University of California at Los Angeles1.430.0%1st Place
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14.89University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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15.4University of California at Los Angeles-0.240.0%1st Place
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15.24San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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13.93California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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13.93California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kirby | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 19.6% | 15.9% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 14.4% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Yakutis | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Silas Barton | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 15.9% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hallie Muller | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 17.3% | 24.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Newt Cutcliffe | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 13.4% | 17.0% | 23.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.