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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Santa Barbara City College2.29+5.17vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+2.18vs Predicted
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3Stanford University1.60+5.70vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.96+3.32vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+0.29vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+2.63vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.95+4.32vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.18+2.54vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California2.33-3.13vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands0.15+4.07vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.52+1.88vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine1.06-0.95vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.39+0.12vs Predicted
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14Santa Clara University2.04-6.87vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley1.53-6.11vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-0.24-0.66vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles1.43-7.72vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-0.11-3.02vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands0.15-4.93vs Predicted
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20San Diego State University-0.29-4.77vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands0.15-6.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.17Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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4.18University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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8.7Stanford University1.600.1%1st Place
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7.32University of Southern California1.960.1%1st Place
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5.29California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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8.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.1%1st Place
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11.32University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
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10.54University of Southern California1.180.0%1st Place
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5.87University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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14.07California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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12.88University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
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11.05University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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13.12University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
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7.13Santa Clara University2.040.1%1st Place
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8.89University of California at Berkeley1.530.0%1st Place
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15.34University of California at Los Angeles-0.240.0%1st Place
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9.28University of California at Los Angeles1.430.0%1st Place
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14.98University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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14.07California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
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15.23San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
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14.07California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silas Barton | 8.5% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 19.8% | 15.7% | 13.2% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Yakutis | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 10.7% | 12.6% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aaron Kiyotoki | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Kirby | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hallie Muller | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 17.9% | 24.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 3.9% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 15.9% | 19.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Newt Cutcliffe | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 16.3% | 24.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.