← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1California Poly Maritime Academy2.60+4.28vs Predicted
-
2University of Southern California1.72+6.43vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California1.96+4.51vs Predicted
-
4Stanford University1.60+4.82vs Predicted
-
5Santa Clara University2.04+2.40vs Predicted
-
6University of Southern California2.33+0.12vs Predicted
-
7University of California at Berkeley1.53+2.19vs Predicted
-
8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+0.97vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Santa Barbara2.95-4.88vs Predicted
-
10California State University Channel Islands0.15+4.17vs Predicted
-
11University of California at Irvine1.06-0.07vs Predicted
-
12University of Washington0.95-0.32vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Los Angeles0.52-0.27vs Predicted
-
14University of California at San Diego0.39-0.41vs Predicted
-
15San Diego State University-0.29+0.31vs Predicted
-
16University of California at Los Angeles1.43-6.58vs Predicted
-
17University of California at San Diego-0.11-2.06vs Predicted
-
18University of California at Los Angeles-0.24-2.56vs Predicted
-
19California State University Channel Islands0.15-4.83vs Predicted
-
20California State University Channel Islands0.15-5.83vs Predicted
-
21Santa Barbara City College2.29-15.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.28California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
-
8.43University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
-
7.51University of Southern California1.960.1%1st Place
-
8.82Stanford University1.600.0%1st Place
-
7.4Santa Clara University2.040.1%1st Place
-
6.12University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
-
9.19University of California at Berkeley1.530.0%1st Place
-
8.97Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
-
4.12University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
-
14.17California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
-
10.93University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
-
11.68University of Washington0.950.0%1st Place
-
12.73University of California at Los Angeles0.520.0%1st Place
-
13.59University of California at San Diego0.390.0%1st Place
-
15.31San Diego State University-0.290.0%1st Place
-
9.42University of California at Los Angeles1.430.0%1st Place
-
14.94University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
-
15.44University of California at Los Angeles-0.240.0%1st Place
-
14.17California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
-
14.17California State University Channel Islands0.150.0%1st Place
-
5.94Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johannes McElvain | 11.2% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Will Paulsen | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Yakutis | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nestor Cano Sostre | 3.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Kirby | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 12.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Brough | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 19.9% | 16.1% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Hughes | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abraham Dearden | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Rohrbach | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Newt Cutcliffe | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 15.5% | 27.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Laura Roudebush | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Natalie Hopper | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 17.4% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hallie Muller | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 16.7% | 23.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Clements | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Silas Barton | 11.1% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.