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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Queen's University1.77+6.57vs Predicted
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2Columbia University2.87+2.55vs Predicted
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3Cornell University3.27+0.67vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.60+1.35vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.32+1.24vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.50-0.31vs Predicted
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7Rutgers University0.80+3.42vs Predicted
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8University of Rochester1.17+1.38vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.06-4.85vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.57-4.47vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology0.36+0.53vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy0.90-1.60vs Predicted
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13Colgate University-0.36+0.17vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester1.17-4.62vs Predicted
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15Ocean County College0.20-3.22vs Predicted
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16Colgate University-0.36-2.83vs Predicted
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18Drexel University0.72-7.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.57Queen's University1.770.1%1st Place
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4.55Columbia University2.870.1%1st Place
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3.67Cornell University3.270.2%1st Place
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5.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.600.1%1st Place
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6.24Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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5.69Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.42Rutgers University0.800.0%1st Place
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9.38University of Rochester1.170.0%1st Place
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4.15SUNY Maritime College3.060.2%1st Place
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5.53U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.570.1%1st Place
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11.53Rochester Institute of Technology0.360.0%1st Place
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10.4U. S. Military Academy0.900.0%1st Place
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13.17Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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9.38University of Rochester1.170.0%1st Place
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11.78Ocean County College0.200.0%1st Place
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13.17Colgate University-0.360.0%1st Place
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10.58Drexel University0.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Sullivan | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Hannon | 12.4% | 16.4% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Alley | 21.0% | 17.4% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Potter Hodgson | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blair Davis | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Turchiano | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ross Nuechterlein | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 15.9% | 14.1% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Boger | 8.5% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Handel | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 19.0% | 15.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Lovo | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Feldman | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 45.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Geoff Williams | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Rinaldi | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 20.5% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Feldman | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 16.9% | 45.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Sinclair | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 15.6% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.