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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1California Poly Maritime Academy1.51+5.43vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.72+3.77vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.92+5.75vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California1.44+2.61vs Predicted
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5Stanford University2.10-0.37vs Predicted
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6University of Washington1.74-0.41vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.93+1.61vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.61+2.10vs Predicted
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9University of California at Berkeley1.02-0.95vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.80-0.94vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.62+3.59vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Barbara0.83-2.69vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California0.28-2.00vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine0.08-1.83vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-0.96+0.32vs Predicted
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16California State University Channel Islands-0.96-0.68vs Predicted
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17Santa Clara University-0.65-2.43vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-0.46-4.13vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-0.04-6.64vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands-0.96-4.68vs Predicted
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21Santa Barbara City College-0.33-7.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43California Poly Maritime Academy1.510.1%1st Place
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5.77University of Southern California1.720.1%1st Place
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8.75University of California at Los Angeles0.920.1%1st Place
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6.61University of Southern California1.440.1%1st Place
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4.63Stanford University2.100.1%1st Place
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5.59University of Washington1.740.1%1st Place
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8.61Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.930.1%1st Place
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10.1University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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8.05University of California at Berkeley1.020.1%1st Place
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9.06University of California at San Diego0.800.1%1st Place
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14.59University of California at San Diego-0.620.0%1st Place
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9.31University of California at Santa Barbara0.830.0%1st Place
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11.0University of Southern California0.280.0%1st Place
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12.17University of California at Irvine0.080.0%1st Place
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15.32California State University Channel Islands-0.960.0%1st Place
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15.32California State University Channel Islands-0.960.0%1st Place
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14.57Santa Clara University-0.650.0%1st Place
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13.87San Diego State University-0.460.0%1st Place
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12.36University of California at Los Angeles-0.040.0%1st Place
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15.32California State University Channel Islands-0.960.0%1st Place
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13.21Santa Barbara City College-0.330.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Van Dine | 8.6% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Paul Chyz | 12.3% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Leah Ford | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Gasparich | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cassie Obel | 14.5% | 13.5% | 16.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karl Skeel | 13.4% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Lausten | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Fargo | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erika Barth | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Lin | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 15.5% | 16.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell McKinney | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Lopez | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Philip Tagatac | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Guynn | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 30.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Guynn | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 30.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Collins | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 18.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Adam Wild | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arjun Boddu | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Guynn | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 30.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kate Madigan | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.