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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.73+3.30vs Predicted
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2Columbia University1.99+4.19vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14+2.78vs Predicted
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4Colgate University0.82+5.26vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.24+0.41vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-1.12vs Predicted
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7Queen's University1.79-0.38vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.89-4.15vs Predicted
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9Colgate University0.82+0.26vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.07-3.96vs Predicted
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11Rochester Institute of Technology0.98-2.23vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.06-1.30vs Predicted
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13Rutgers University-0.64-1.09vs Predicted
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14Drexel University1.64-6.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3Fordham University2.730.2%1st Place
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6.19Columbia University1.990.1%1st Place
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5.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.1%1st Place
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9.26Colgate University0.820.0%1st Place
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5.41SUNY Maritime College2.240.1%1st Place
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4.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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6.62Queen's University1.790.1%1st Place
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3.85Cornell University2.890.2%1st Place
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9.26Colgate University0.820.0%1st Place
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6.04Cornell University2.070.1%1st Place
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8.77Rochester Institute of Technology0.980.0%1st Place
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10.7Ocean County College0.060.0%1st Place
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11.91Rutgers University-0.640.0%1st Place
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7.29Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sachs | 16.2% | 14.3% | 14.7% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 6.9% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Deady | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Libby | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 19.0% | 20.5% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schoene | 9.8% | 12.0% | 10.6% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 13.5% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Legge | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 19.1% | 17.2% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Libby | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 19.0% | 20.5% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Goldsmith | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hunt | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 18.3% | 15.0% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 1.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 31.9% | 22.8% | 0.0% |
| Welf Ludwig | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 8.0% | 16.5% | 61.7% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 13.9% | 10.2% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.