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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.89+2.92vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.24+3.53vs Predicted
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3Columbia University1.99+3.23vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.79+2.75vs Predicted
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5Fordham University2.73-0.79vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-1.12vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14-1.28vs Predicted
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9Colgate University0.82+0.18vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.07-3.94vs Predicted
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11Colgate University0.82-1.82vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology0.98-3.22vs Predicted
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13Drexel University1.64-6.01vs Predicted
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14Ocean County College0.06-3.15vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University-0.64-3.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.92Cornell University2.890.2%1st Place
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5.53SUNY Maritime College2.240.1%1st Place
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6.23Columbia University1.990.1%1st Place
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6.75Queen's University1.790.1%1st Place
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4.21Fordham University2.730.2%1st Place
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4.88U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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5.72Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.1%1st Place
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9.18Colgate University0.820.0%1st Place
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6.06Cornell University2.070.1%1st Place
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9.18Colgate University0.820.0%1st Place
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8.78Rochester Institute of Technology0.980.0%1st Place
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6.99Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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10.85Ocean County College0.060.0%1st Place
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11.88Rutgers University-0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Andrews | 19.4% | 15.4% | 15.4% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schoene | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Charles Legge | 5.3% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 16.6% | 16.4% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 12.5% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Deady | 9.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Libby | 2.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 20.9% | 17.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Goldsmith | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Libby | 2.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.9% | 20.9% | 17.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hunt | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 16.5% | 14.5% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 14.9% | 31.4% | 26.5% | 0.0% |
| Welf Ludwig | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 21.7% | 57.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.