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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.73+3.30vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14+3.77vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.24+2.45vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.79+2.73vs Predicted
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5Columbia University1.99+1.01vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.89-2.15vs Predicted
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7Rochester Institute of Technology0.98+1.62vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.07-2.12vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-4.00vs Predicted
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10Colgate University0.49-0.15vs Predicted
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11Colgate University0.49-1.15vs Predicted
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12Drexel University1.64-5.05vs Predicted
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13Ocean County College0.06-2.24vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-0.64-2.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.3Fordham University2.730.2%1st Place
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5.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.1%1st Place
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5.45SUNY Maritime College2.240.1%1st Place
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6.73Queen's University1.790.0%1st Place
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6.01Columbia University1.990.1%1st Place
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3.85Cornell University2.890.2%1st Place
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8.62Rochester Institute of Technology0.980.0%1st Place
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5.88Cornell University2.070.1%1st Place
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5.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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9.85Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
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9.85Colgate University0.490.0%1st Place
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6.95Drexel University1.640.1%1st Place
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10.76Ocean County College0.060.0%1st Place
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11.84Rutgers University-0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sachs | 17.1% | 13.3% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Deady | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schoene | 8.3% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Legge | 4.8% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 8.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 8.4% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 20.0% | 17.9% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hunt | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 16.3% | 17.6% | 14.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Goldsmith | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 12.1% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Beals | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 13.6% | 19.3% | 24.5% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Beals | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 13.6% | 19.3% | 24.5% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 16.1% | 28.8% | 25.5% | 0.0% |
| Welf Ludwig | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 9.8% | 20.2% | 56.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.