Race 8A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Edward Herman 22.2% 19.8% 17.1% 12.7% 10.4% 6.5% 5.0% 3.3% 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dominik Moncur 15.0% 13.5% 12.0% 12.3% 11.6% 10.8% 9.0% 6.3% 4.2% 2.4% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ludwik Grzelak 9.2% 8.0% 9.2% 10.0% 11.1% 10.3% 9.1% 8.5% 7.6% 5.5% 5.3% 3.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
Madeline Murphy 9.2% 10.8% 9.5% 9.8% 9.4% 10.1% 9.8% 9.3% 7.2% 6.0% 4.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0%
Richard Pokorny 8.8% 11.2% 11.1% 10.8% 11.0% 10.2% 10.9% 7.8% 7.3% 4.9% 3.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
John Fichtenholtz 3.9% 5.5% 4.6% 5.1% 6.2% 7.0% 7.6% 8.4% 10.2% 10.8% 9.8% 7.8% 5.8% 4.0% 2.5% 0.7%
Jakub Fuja 11.6% 10.3% 11.7% 11.9% 10.3% 9.8% 8.9% 8.2% 6.6% 5.4% 2.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Olivia Blackmer 1.2% 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 2.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.7% 4.0% 5.5% 7.6% 8.8% 12.5% 13.2% 16.4% 16.9%
Colin Shearley 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 3.2% 3.5% 4.7% 6.1% 7.6% 9.7% 11.8% 13.6% 16.3% 14.0%
Sophia Fuller 5.0% 6.0% 5.6% 7.6% 7.6% 8.7% 8.4% 9.0% 9.2% 9.3% 7.8% 6.6% 4.7% 3.1% 0.9% 0.4%
Hayden McCready 4.2% 3.9% 4.9% 5.7% 5.8% 5.5% 7.0% 8.0% 10.0% 10.5% 9.6% 8.7% 8.5% 4.9% 2.4% 0.7%
Charlotte Green 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 3.6% 5.6% 6.5% 6.3% 8.6% 10.9% 12.4% 12.9% 11.6% 9.8%
James Meyer 2.2% 1.8% 3.1% 3.0% 3.3% 4.7% 4.4% 5.9% 7.1% 8.7% 9.1% 11.7% 11.3% 10.6% 8.3% 4.7%
Riley McKnight 0.9% 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 2.7% 2.5% 3.4% 3.5% 4.9% 7.2% 8.2% 10.1% 14.3% 17.0% 18.8%
Tyler Winowiecki 2.5% 2.9% 3.6% 3.5% 4.3% 4.5% 6.7% 6.8% 7.6% 8.8% 9.2% 11.5% 10.2% 8.5% 6.6% 2.9%
Victoria Sikorjak 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 2.1% 1.5% 3.1% 2.6% 3.9% 5.1% 6.7% 8.8% 12.5% 17.4% 31.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.