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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.89+3.20vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14+4.18vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.73+1.63vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.24+1.91vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.07+1.28vs Predicted
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6Colgate University2.53-0.95vs Predicted
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7Drexel University1.64+0.43vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.79-0.91vs Predicted
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9Columbia University1.99-2.41vs Predicted
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10Colgate University2.53-4.95vs Predicted
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11Rutgers University-0.64+0.93vs Predicted
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12Ocean County College0.06-1.05vs Predicted
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14Rochester Institute of Technology0.94-4.61vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-9.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.2Cornell University2.890.2%1st Place
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6.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.1%1st Place
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4.63Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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5.91SUNY Maritime College2.240.1%1st Place
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6.28Cornell University2.070.1%1st Place
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5.05Colgate University2.530.1%1st Place
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7.43Drexel University1.640.1%1st Place
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7.09Queen's University1.790.1%1st Place
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6.59Columbia University1.990.1%1st Place
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5.05Colgate University2.530.1%1st Place
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11.93Rutgers University-0.640.0%1st Place
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10.95Ocean County College0.060.0%1st Place
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9.39Rochester Institute of Technology0.940.0%1st Place
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5.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Andrews | 17.5% | 14.5% | 15.6% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Deady | 7.0% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 14.3% | 14.0% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schoene | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Goldsmith | 8.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Layton | 12.8% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Legge | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Scott Layton | 12.8% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Welf Ludwig | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 19.5% | 61.9% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 14.0% | 33.9% | 26.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sullivan | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 22.0% | 21.0% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 9.9% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.