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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Jacksonville University3.43+0.70vs Predicted
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2University of South Carolina0.47+5.86vs Predicted
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3SUNY Stony Brook1.41+2.23vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.87+0.11vs Predicted
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5Florida State University0.50+2.72vs Predicted
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6Georgia Institute of Technology0.45+2.16vs Predicted
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7Drexel University0.58+0.65vs Predicted
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8University of South Carolina0.50-0.28vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.80-1.94vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University0.85-3.28vs Predicted
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11William and Mary-0.81+0.94vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University-0.55-0.91vs Predicted
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13University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.69+1.14vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech-1.79+0.43vs Predicted
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15University of Georgia-1.96-0.35vs Predicted
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16University of North Carolina-0.77-4.16vs Predicted
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17University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.48-6.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.7Jacksonville University3.430.6%1st Place
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7.86University of South Carolina0.470.0%1st Place
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5.23SUNY Stony Brook1.410.1%1st Place
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4.11Jacksonville University1.870.1%1st Place
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7.72Florida State University0.500.0%1st Place
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8.16Georgia Institute of Technology0.450.0%1st Place
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7.65Drexel University0.580.0%1st Place
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7.72University of South Carolina0.500.0%1st Place
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7.06Washington College0.800.0%1st Place
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6.72North Carolina State University0.850.0%1st Place
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11.94William and Mary-0.810.0%1st Place
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11.09Syracuse University-0.550.0%1st Place
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14.14University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.690.0%1st Place
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14.43Virginia Tech-1.790.0%1st Place
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14.65University of Georgia-1.960.0%1st Place
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11.84University of North Carolina-0.770.0%1st Place
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10.99University of Maryland/Baltimore County-0.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Garcia Bringas | 55.0% | 27.3% | 12.1% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Chaplin | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 6.3% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Hidley | 12.6% | 17.3% | 16.1% | 16.0% | 12.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rafael Melendez | 2.2% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Maggie Royal | 2.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Madeline DelVescovo | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Alex Myers | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| William Sunkler | 3.5% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kara Wheeler | 3.8% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nina Willms | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 4.5% |
| Niall Shannon | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| Taylor Wood | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 12.6% | 16.6% | 21.5% | 23.2% |
| Natalie Lovelace | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 10.3% | 14.5% | 21.1% | 28.9% |
| Erica Trotter | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 12.6% | 21.6% | 34.7% |
| Ann Burns Morrison | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 4.2% |
| Nathan Thompson | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 6.8% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.