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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14+5.17vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College2.24+3.99vs Predicted
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3Colgate University2.53+2.15vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46+1.32vs Predicted
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5Queen's University1.79+2.05vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.89-1.82vs Predicted
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7Colgate University2.53-1.85vs Predicted
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8Columbia University1.99-1.49vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.07-2.63vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College0.06+0.98vs Predicted
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11Drexel University1.64-3.54vs Predicted
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13Rochester Institute of Technology0.94-3.84vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-0.64-2.00vs Predicted
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15Fordham University2.73-10.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.1%1st Place
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5.99SUNY Maritime College2.240.1%1st Place
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5.15Colgate University2.530.1%1st Place
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5.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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7.05Queen's University1.790.1%1st Place
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4.18Cornell University2.890.2%1st Place
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5.15Colgate University2.530.1%1st Place
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6.51Columbia University1.990.1%1st Place
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6.37Cornell University2.070.1%1st Place
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10.98Ocean County College0.060.0%1st Place
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7.46Drexel University1.640.1%1st Place
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9.16Rochester Institute of Technology0.940.0%1st Place
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12.0Rutgers University-0.640.0%1st Place
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4.66Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Deady | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schoene | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Scott Layton | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 10.4% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Legge | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 17.7% | 15.5% | 15.0% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Layton | 11.8% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 8.1% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Goldsmith | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 10.4% | 36.5% | 28.9% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 6.7% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Sullivan | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 22.5% | 18.6% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| Welf Ludwig | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 7.5% | 20.7% | 60.6% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 13.6% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.