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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University2.73+3.61vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.89+2.19vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.24+2.90vs Predicted
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4Queen's University1.79+3.19vs Predicted
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5Colgate University2.53-0.01vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.46-0.77vs Predicted
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7Columbia University1.99-0.52vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.07-1.73vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.14-2.75vs Predicted
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10Rochester Institute of Technology0.98-0.86vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College0.06-0.03vs Predicted
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12Colgate University2.53-7.01vs Predicted
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14Rutgers University-0.64-1.95vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.64-7.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.61Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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4.19Cornell University2.890.2%1st Place
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5.9SUNY Maritime College2.240.1%1st Place
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7.19Queen's University1.790.0%1st Place
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4.99Colgate University2.530.1%1st Place
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5.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.460.1%1st Place
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6.48Columbia University1.990.1%1st Place
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6.27Cornell University2.070.1%1st Place
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6.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.140.1%1st Place
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9.14Rochester Institute of Technology0.980.0%1st Place
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10.97Ocean County College0.060.0%1st Place
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4.99Colgate University2.530.1%1st Place
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12.05Rutgers University-0.640.0%1st Place
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7.72Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sachs | 14.3% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 18.3% | 14.0% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schoene | 7.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Charles Legge | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 10.7% | 5.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Scott Layton | 12.6% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arthur Bailey IV | 12.0% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Goldsmith | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Deady | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hunt | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 21.2% | 17.7% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| Jack Murray | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 37.4% | 24.8% | 0.0% |
| Scott Layton | 12.6% | 13.3% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Welf Ludwig | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 19.1% | 63.9% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 14.9% | 7.5% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.