Race 10A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Madeline Murphy 8.7% 9.7% 10.2% 11.2% 10.4% 10.0% 9.8% 8.6% 7.4% 5.7% 3.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Edward Herman 22.4% 19.8% 16.8% 12.4% 9.6% 6.9% 5.0% 3.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
John Fichtenholtz 4.0% 4.2% 4.2% 5.9% 6.3% 7.7% 8.7% 9.3% 8.8% 8.6% 11.2% 8.6% 6.1% 3.5% 2.1% 0.8%
Ludwik Grzelak 10.0% 8.9% 10.0% 8.9% 9.5% 10.8% 9.2% 9.2% 7.4% 7.2% 4.5% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Hayden McCready 3.3% 3.9% 4.0% 5.2% 5.8% 6.6% 6.8% 8.3% 10.1% 10.7% 10.1% 9.1% 7.5% 4.7% 2.9% 1.1%
Jakub Fuja 11.1% 10.3% 10.9% 11.7% 10.5% 9.5% 9.8% 8.1% 6.3% 5.5% 2.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Dominik Moncur 13.8% 13.5% 13.0% 11.8% 12.6% 9.2% 8.8% 6.3% 5.7% 2.9% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
James Meyer 1.8% 2.5% 2.8% 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% 4.0% 5.8% 7.3% 8.9% 9.8% 11.8% 12.6% 9.0% 8.5% 4.8%
Olivia Blackmer 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.6% 3.9% 4.1% 5.8% 5.9% 9.2% 10.8% 14.5% 16.9% 16.4%
Charlotte Green 2.0% 1.6% 2.9% 2.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 4.2% 6.5% 7.1% 8.5% 8.8% 11.6% 12.3% 12.5% 8.8%
Richard Pokorny 10.6% 12.4% 11.1% 11.6% 10.8% 9.3% 10.7% 8.2% 6.0% 4.1% 2.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Sophia Fuller 5.5% 5.7% 7.1% 6.3% 7.1% 8.0% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 9.2% 9.2% 7.4% 4.5% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Riley McKnight 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 2.1% 1.6% 2.5% 2.4% 3.7% 4.2% 5.1% 6.2% 7.4% 9.7% 14.8% 17.4% 19.7%
Tyler Winowiecki 2.5% 2.9% 3.4% 3.5% 4.0% 4.8% 5.1% 6.3% 7.1% 9.2% 10.2% 11.5% 11.8% 8.5% 6.0% 3.0%
Victoria Sikorjak 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 2.0% 1.7% 2.6% 3.5% 3.4% 6.2% 7.3% 9.1% 12.8% 17.0% 29.8%
Colin Shearley 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 2.6% 2.5% 3.5% 4.8% 5.5% 7.4% 8.6% 11.6% 16.0% 15.4% 15.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.