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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Santa Clara University2.04+6.20vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.15+2.10vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+1.39vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.33+2.54vs Predicted
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5University of California at Irvine1.06+5.58vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.61+6.34vs Predicted
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7Santa Barbara City College2.29-0.42vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy2.60-2.45vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii1.59+0.12vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley1.53-0.94vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61-2.01vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii2.92-7.24vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18-2.58vs Predicted
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14Oregon State University-0.10+0.19vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego0.43-2.34vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University-0.01-2.05vs Predicted
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17Western Washington University0.52-4.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.2Santa Clara University2.040.1%1st Place
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4.1Stanford University3.150.2%1st Place
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4.39University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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6.54University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Irvine1.060.0%1st Place
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12.34University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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6.58Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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5.55California Poly Maritime Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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9.12University of Hawaii1.590.0%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Berkeley1.530.0%1st Place
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8.99Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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4.76University of Hawaii2.920.1%1st Place
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10.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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14.19Oregon State University-0.100.0%1st Place
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12.66University of California at San Diego0.430.0%1st Place
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13.95Western Washington University-0.010.0%1st Place
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12.56Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kirby | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| William Marshall | 17.9% | 15.3% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 15.9% | 14.9% | 13.3% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian MacLean | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 3.4% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 15.3% | 8.2% |
| Silas Barton | 7.4% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Johannes McElvain | 11.3% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Louise Currie | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Solomon | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Ben Brough | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Chuck Eaton | 14.5% | 14.1% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alyson Crowley | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 2.7% |
| Quanah Green | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 11.9% | 19.9% | 31.1% |
| Yan Rui Goheen | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 15.0% | 12.6% |
| Nikoline Alden | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 27.5% |
| Ryan Van Slyck | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 12.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.