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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.15+2.75vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara3.06+2.03vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii2.92+1.41vs Predicted
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4Santa Clara University2.04+3.03vs Predicted
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5Santa Barbara City College2.29+1.14vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.33+0.12vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.53+1.61vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.61+0.18vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.18+0.60vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.61+1.46vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii1.59-2.72vs Predicted
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12Oregon State University0.51-0.31vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy1.51-4.46vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.11-0.74vs Predicted
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15Western Washington University-0.01-1.85vs Predicted
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16Western Washington University0.52-4.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75Stanford University3.150.2%1st Place
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4.03University of California at Santa Barbara3.060.2%1st Place
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4.41University of Hawaii2.920.2%1st Place
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7.03Santa Clara University2.040.0%1st Place
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6.14Santa Barbara City College2.290.1%1st Place
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6.12University of Southern California2.330.1%1st Place
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8.61University of California at Berkeley1.530.0%1st Place
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8.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.610.0%1st Place
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9.6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.180.0%1st Place
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11.46University of California at Los Angeles0.610.0%1st Place
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8.28University of Hawaii1.590.0%1st Place
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11.69Oregon State University0.510.0%1st Place
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8.54California Poly Maritime Academy1.510.0%1st Place
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13.26University of California at San Diego-0.110.0%1st Place
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13.15Western Washington University-0.010.0%1st Place
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11.76Western Washington University0.520.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Marshall | 21.1% | 18.1% | 13.6% | 14.5% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kristopher Swanson | 19.0% | 16.6% | 14.6% | 12.3% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chuck Eaton | 15.2% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Kirby | 4.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Silas Barton | 8.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Wong | 7.7% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Solomon | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Ben Brough | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Alyson Crowley | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| Nicholas Lenz Lenz | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 13.6% | 8.5% |
| Louise Currie | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Thomas Hope | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 15.2% | 12.2% |
| Nolan Van Dine | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 0.9% |
| Natalie Hopper | 0.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 19.6% | 31.0% |
| Nikoline Alden | 0.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 13.6% | 18.2% | 29.9% |
| Ryan Van Slyck | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 12.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.