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📊 Prediction Accuracy
12.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California2.57+7.95vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine3.43+3.65vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii3.83+1.28vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+5.74vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.69-1.30vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.26+3.44vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz1.10+7.94vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.78-0.85vs Predicted
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10University of Texas1.46+3.95vs Predicted
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11Stanford University2.90-3.50vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles2.57-2.93vs Predicted
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13University of California at Davis0.64+4.90vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley1.01+2.58vs Predicted
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15University of Oregon2.51-5.99vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego1.57-2.15vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-3.61vs Predicted
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18University of Washington1.69-4.91vs Predicted
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19Western Washington University1.24-3.68vs Predicted
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20Western Washington University1.02-4.09vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis1.12-5.43vs Predicted
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22University of California at Berkeley1.57-8.16vs Predicted
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23University of Washington0.63-5.00vs Predicted
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25University of Oregon0.15-5.36vs Predicted
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26California State University Monterey Bay0.50-7.45vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.95University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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5.65University of California at Irvine3.430.1%1st Place
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4.28University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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10.74California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.0%1st Place
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4.7Brown University3.690.2%1st Place
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10.44Stanford University2.260.0%1st Place
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15.94University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
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8.15University of California at Santa Barbara2.780.1%1st Place
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13.95University of Texas1.460.0%1st Place
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7.5Stanford University2.900.1%1st Place
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9.07University of California at Los Angeles2.570.1%1st Place
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17.9University of California at Davis0.640.0%1st Place
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16.58University of California at Berkeley1.010.0%1st Place
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9.01University of Oregon2.510.0%1st Place
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13.85University of California at San Diego1.570.0%1st Place
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13.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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13.09University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
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15.32Western Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
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15.91Western Washington University1.020.0%1st Place
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15.57University of California at Davis1.120.0%1st Place
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13.84University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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18.0University of Washington0.630.0%1st Place
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19.64University of Oregon0.150.0%1st Place
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18.55California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Rupp | 6.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rex Cameron | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Peterson | 17.2% | 15.9% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Doyle | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 16.0% | 15.8% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tally Buckstaff | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Connor Bescos | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% |
| Matt Foster | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Caleb Cunningham | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Hughes | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Thome | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 13.8% |
| Lauren Amery | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.1% |
| Philip Gordon | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nguyen | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Erik Lund | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Matt Marquardt | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Debbi Kenote | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 4.8% |
| William Van Trigt | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% |
| Aubrey Toole | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Molly Utter | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 13.1% |
| Christina Wilson | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 28.3% |
| Christina Stege | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 16.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.