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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii3.83+3.03vs Predicted
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2University of California at Irvine3.43+3.21vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.69+1.43vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles2.57+4.25vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.78+2.49vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+6.47vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego1.57+5.64vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.57+0.48vs Predicted
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9University of Washington1.69+3.32vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley1.57+2.80vs Predicted
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11University of Oregon2.51-2.21vs Predicted
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13University of Texas1.46+0.40vs Predicted
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14University of Washington0.63+3.26vs Predicted
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15California Poly Maritime Academy2.22-5.39vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Cruz1.10-0.65vs Predicted
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17Stanford University2.26-7.26vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley1.01-2.39vs Predicted
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19Western Washington University1.24-4.35vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis0.64-3.31vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis1.12-6.09vs Predicted
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22Western Washington University1.02-6.69vs Predicted
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24California State University Monterey Bay0.50-6.36vs Predicted
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25University of Oregon0.15-6.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.03University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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5.21University of California at Irvine3.430.1%1st Place
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4.43Brown University3.690.2%1st Place
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8.25University of California at Los Angeles2.570.1%1st Place
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7.49University of California at Santa Barbara2.780.1%1st Place
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12.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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12.64University of California at San Diego1.570.0%1st Place
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8.48University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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12.32University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
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12.8University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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8.79University of Oregon2.510.0%1st Place
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13.4University of Texas1.460.0%1st Place
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17.26University of Washington0.630.0%1st Place
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9.61California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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15.35University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
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9.74Stanford University2.260.0%1st Place
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15.61University of California at Berkeley1.010.0%1st Place
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14.65Western Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
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16.69University of California at Davis0.640.0%1st Place
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14.91University of California at Davis1.120.0%1st Place
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15.31Western Washington University1.020.0%1st Place
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17.64California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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18.91University of Oregon0.150.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Peterson | 18.5% | 17.6% | 17.1% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rex Cameron | 11.6% | 14.7% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 16.8% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Hughes | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matt Foster | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Matthew Nguyen | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Aubrey Toole | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| Philip Gordon | 4.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Caleb Cunningham | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Molly Utter | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 12.0% |
| Scott Doyle | 5.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Bescos | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% |
| Tally Buckstaff | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lauren Amery | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 5.6% |
| Matt Marquardt | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.7% |
| Elizabeth Thome | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 11.0% |
| William Van Trigt | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% |
| Debbi Kenote | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 4.7% |
| Christina Stege | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 19.3% |
| Christina Wilson | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 13.2% | 28.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.