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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.31+2.31vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.85+2.19vs Predicted
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3Washington College2.01+0.86vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+1.70vs Predicted
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5Syracuse University-1.01+4.84vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook0.90+0.19vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech1.65-2.51vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech1.65-3.51vs Predicted
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9Columbia University0.68-2.43vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.82-5.93vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-1.05-1.18vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute-1.06-2.04vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-1.07-3.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.31St. Mary's College of Maryland2.310.2%1st Place
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4.19Queen's University1.850.1%1st Place
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3.86Washington College2.010.2%1st Place
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5.7Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.1%1st Place
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9.84Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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6.19SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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4.49Virginia Tech1.650.1%1st Place
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4.49Virginia Tech1.650.1%1st Place
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6.57Columbia University0.680.1%1st Place
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4.07Christopher Newport University1.820.1%1st Place
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9.82Princeton University-1.050.0%1st Place
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9.96Webb Institute-1.060.0%1st Place
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9.99Drexel University-1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Ungar | 22.3% | 18.9% | 17.9% | 14.1% | 11.9% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 14.0% | 15.4% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 17.4% | 16.2% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 16.6% | 14.0% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 15.9% | 18.2% | 23.8% | 24.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 18.2% | 13.3% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 12.8% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 12.8% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Tong | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 8.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 12.7% | 17.5% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Donohue | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 14.3% | 22.2% | 22.9% | 22.9% | 0.0% |
| Alec Gonzalez | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 21.5% | 24.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Young | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 12.7% | 18.9% | 24.7% | 26.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.