Race 5B

leroy-grant

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Nicholas Manfredi 4.6% 6.1% 6.0% 7.9% 9.9% 12.5% 17.6% 15.7% 12.5% 5.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Andrew O'Brien 6.3% 7.2% 9.3% 10.3% 10.9% 15.2% 15.9% 14.1% 6.4% 3.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Price 11.9% 11.6% 13.3% 11.1% 15.8% 12.8% 11.6% 8.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ellie Ungar 22.2% 21.1% 15.0% 15.9% 11.8% 6.4% 4.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Matti Muru 14.0% 15.0% 14.9% 14.1% 13.0% 11.6% 9.1% 4.8% 2.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Matthew McDermaid 17.4% 14.6% 17.4% 14.5% 12.4% 10.3% 7.8% 4.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Price 11.9% 11.6% 13.3% 11.1% 15.8% 12.8% 11.6% 8.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vir Menon 17.3% 16.3% 14.1% 14.8% 13.3% 10.3% 8.4% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholas Houchois 3.3% 5.1% 5.3% 5.3% 6.5% 11.1% 11.9% 20.2% 16.1% 9.3% 4.4% 1.5% 0.0%
Alec Gonzalez 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 2.9% 3.6% 7.5% 14.2% 19.5% 24.2% 23.3% 0.0%
Quinn Donohue 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 3.6% 5.8% 13.4% 21.2% 23.7% 23.1% 0.0%
Stephen Young 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 2.4% 3.7% 6.3% 13.5% 19.7% 22.1% 27.3% 0.0%
John Colby 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.8% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% 7.1% 14.8% 19.4% 23.2% 24.2% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.