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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech1.65+3.57vs Predicted
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2Queen's University1.85+2.08vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.31+0.23vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.01-0.23vs Predicted
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5SUNY Stony Brook0.90+1.18vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech1.65-1.43vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.82-2.82vs Predicted
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8Stevens Institute of Technology1.15-2.48vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-1.01+0.77vs Predicted
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10Columbia University0.47-3.01vs Predicted
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11Princeton University-1.05-1.22vs Predicted
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12Drexel University-1.07-2.04vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute-1.06-3.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.57Virginia Tech1.650.1%1st Place
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4.08Queen's University1.850.1%1st Place
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3.23St. Mary's College of Maryland2.310.2%1st Place
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3.77Washington College2.010.2%1st Place
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6.18SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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4.57Virginia Tech1.650.1%1st Place
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4.18Christopher Newport University1.820.1%1st Place
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5.52Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.1%1st Place
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9.77Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
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6.99Columbia University0.470.0%1st Place
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9.78Princeton University-1.050.0%1st Place
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9.96Drexel University-1.070.0%1st Place
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9.96Webb Institute-1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Price | 12.1% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 14.0% | 16.7% | 14.0% | 14.4% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Ungar | 24.1% | 18.3% | 18.1% | 13.8% | 10.7% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 15.7% | 19.3% | 15.9% | 14.8% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 16.6% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 12.1% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 7.2% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 15.0% | 13.3% | 14.2% | 13.4% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 13.7% | 14.7% | 14.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 15.1% | 17.9% | 23.7% | 23.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Houchois | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 20.5% | 17.0% | 9.5% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Donohue | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 13.7% | 22.0% | 21.6% | 23.7% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Young | 1.2% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 20.4% | 24.9% | 25.6% | 0.0% |
| Alec Gonzalez | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 15.6% | 17.5% | 24.3% | 26.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.