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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.31+2.34vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University1.82+2.19vs Predicted
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3Stevens Institute of Technology1.15+2.68vs Predicted
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4Columbia University0.68+2.64vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech1.65-0.46vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.01-2.18vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook0.90-0.93vs Predicted
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8Queen's University1.85-3.92vs Predicted
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9Drexel University-1.07+0.94vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech1.65-5.46vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute-1.06-1.13vs Predicted
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12Princeton University-1.05-2.04vs Predicted
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14Syracuse University-1.01-4.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.34St. Mary's College of Maryland2.310.2%1st Place
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4.19Christopher Newport University1.820.1%1st Place
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5.68Stevens Institute of Technology1.150.1%1st Place
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6.64Columbia University0.680.0%1st Place
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4.54Virginia Tech1.650.1%1st Place
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3.82Washington College2.010.2%1st Place
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6.07SUNY Stony Brook0.900.1%1st Place
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4.08Queen's University1.850.2%1st Place
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9.94Drexel University-1.070.0%1st Place
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4.54Virginia Tech1.650.1%1st Place
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9.87Webb Institute-1.060.0%1st Place
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9.96Princeton University-1.050.0%1st Place
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9.88Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie Ungar | 21.6% | 18.3% | 19.8% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Anders Hudson | 13.0% | 15.3% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew O'Brien | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 16.7% | 14.7% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Calvin Tong | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 15.4% | 16.7% | 14.6% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 11.2% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew McDermaid | 16.6% | 17.1% | 15.0% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Manfredi | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 15.9% | 16.5% | 10.7% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Matti Muru | 16.9% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Young | 1.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 15.3% | 20.4% | 24.4% | 23.8% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Price | 11.2% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alec Gonzalez | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 6.3% | 12.8% | 19.9% | 25.8% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Donohue | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 21.5% | 21.8% | 26.8% | 0.0% |
| John Colby | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 7.1% | 14.5% | 20.3% | 22.5% | 25.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.