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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.78+6.98vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii3.83+2.39vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.90+4.48vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy2.22+6.70vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California2.57+2.79vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley1.57+6.79vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine3.43-2.43vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego1.57+4.71vs Predicted
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10University of Texas1.46+3.95vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.69-6.19vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz1.10+4.09vs Predicted
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13University of Oregon2.51-3.80vs Predicted
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14University of Washington1.69-0.61vs Predicted
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15Western Washington University1.24+0.16vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles2.57-7.00vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64-3.65vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley1.01-1.82vs Predicted
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20University of California at Davis1.12-4.03vs Predicted
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21University of Oregon0.15-1.58vs Predicted
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22Stanford University2.26-11.80vs Predicted
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23University of Washington0.63-4.81vs Predicted
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24California State University Monterey Bay0.50-5.50vs Predicted
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25Western Washington University1.02-8.78vs Predicted
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26University of California at Davis0.64-8.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.98University of California at Santa Barbara2.780.1%1st Place
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4.39University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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7.48Stanford University2.900.1%1st Place
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10.7California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.0%1st Place
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8.79University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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13.79University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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5.57University of California at Irvine3.430.1%1st Place
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13.71University of California at San Diego1.570.0%1st Place
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13.95University of Texas1.460.0%1st Place
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4.81Brown University3.690.2%1st Place
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16.09University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
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9.2University of Oregon2.510.1%1st Place
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13.39University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
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15.16Western Washington University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.0University of California at Los Angeles2.570.1%1st Place
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13.35Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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16.18University of California at Berkeley1.010.0%1st Place
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15.97University of California at Davis1.120.0%1st Place
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19.42University of Oregon0.150.0%1st Place
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10.2Stanford University2.260.0%1st Place
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18.19University of Washington0.630.0%1st Place
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18.5California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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16.22Western Washington University1.020.0%1st Place
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17.97University of California at Davis0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Foster | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Peterson | 15.5% | 18.0% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Doyle | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Aubrey Toole | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Rex Cameron | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Nguyen | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Caleb Cunningham | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.4% |
| Judge Ryan | 15.1% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Bescos | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.9% |
| Philip Gordon | 5.5% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Matt Marquardt | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% |
| Charlotte Hughes | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Lauren Amery | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% |
| William Van Trigt | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 4.1% |
| Christina Wilson | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 13.9% | 28.7% |
| Tally Buckstaff | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Molly Utter | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 13.6% |
| Christina Stege | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 14.5% | 16.0% |
| Debbi Kenote | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 5.4% |
| Elizabeth Thome | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 12.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.