Race 12A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Edward Herman 23.9% 19.2% 16.2% 12.8% 8.5% 7.2% 5.3% 3.6% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jakub Fuja 10.3% 11.8% 11.5% 11.0% 10.8% 10.8% 9.4% 7.4% 6.5% 5.0% 3.4% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Madeline Murphy 9.8% 8.9% 8.9% 10.3% 11.5% 9.3% 9.6% 9.8% 7.4% 6.0% 4.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Hayden McCready 3.6% 5.1% 4.5% 5.1% 4.7% 5.5% 7.3% 7.9% 8.7% 10.3% 11.0% 8.9% 8.5% 4.7% 2.9% 1.2%
Ludwik Grzelak 8.7% 8.7% 9.2% 9.1% 10.1% 10.9% 10.0% 9.1% 8.8% 5.7% 4.5% 2.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
John Fichtenholtz 4.3% 5.1% 5.2% 5.3% 6.2% 7.1% 7.8% 10.5% 8.8% 9.8% 8.6% 8.9% 5.7% 4.2% 1.9% 0.4%
Colin Shearley 1.6% 1.2% 1.5% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 3.0% 3.7% 4.1% 6.4% 8.0% 9.6% 10.8% 13.9% 15.1% 15.3%
Dominik Moncur 13.7% 14.6% 13.9% 12.3% 11.7% 10.6% 7.4% 6.3% 3.6% 3.2% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Richard Pokorny 10.6% 10.2% 11.1% 12.3% 12.2% 10.0% 9.3% 7.3% 7.0% 4.9% 2.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Sophia Fuller 4.7% 5.2% 6.3% 7.7% 7.4% 7.5% 8.4% 9.9% 9.6% 9.6% 9.0% 6.2% 4.7% 2.2% 1.2% 0.2%
James Meyer 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.4% 4.5% 4.1% 5.2% 5.1% 7.4% 7.4% 9.4% 11.8% 10.5% 11.2% 8.2% 4.7%
Olivia Blackmer 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.4% 4.7% 5.5% 6.4% 8.5% 11.0% 14.3% 16.3% 19.4%
Charlotte Green 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.8% 2.9% 3.5% 4.5% 6.3% 8.5% 9.3% 10.8% 12.7% 12.0% 10.8% 8.2%
Tyler Winowiecki 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% 3.5% 4.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.7% 8.2% 8.3% 10.3% 11.8% 11.3% 8.5% 6.3% 2.5%
Victoria Sikorjak 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.5% 3.0% 3.5% 5.5% 7.0% 9.8% 13.2% 17.7% 29.9%
Riley McKnight 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 2.5% 3.1% 3.1% 4.2% 5.1% 6.3% 8.0% 10.3% 13.7% 19.1% 18.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.