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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.87+6.54vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.69+2.70vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles2.57+5.76vs Predicted
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4University of Oregon2.51+4.90vs Predicted
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6University of Texas1.46+7.75vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.26+2.99vs Predicted
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8University of Hawaii3.83-3.88vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.64+4.11vs Predicted
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10University of California at Irvine3.43-4.53vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California2.57-2.29vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley1.57+1.60vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University1.02+2.73vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego1.57-0.57vs Predicted
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15Stanford University2.90-7.87vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay0.50+1.97vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis1.12-1.75vs Predicted
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18University of Oregon0.15+1.09vs Predicted
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19California Poly Maritime Academy2.22-8.54vs Predicted
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21University of California at Santa Cruz1.10-5.89vs Predicted
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22University of California at Davis0.64-4.78vs Predicted
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23University of Washington0.63-5.79vs Predicted
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24University of Washington1.69-11.09vs Predicted
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25University of California at Berkeley1.01-9.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.54University of California at Santa Barbara2.870.1%1st Place
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4.7Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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8.76University of California at Los Angeles2.570.0%1st Place
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8.9University of Oregon2.510.1%1st Place
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13.75University of Texas1.460.0%1st Place
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9.99Stanford University2.260.0%1st Place
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4.12University of Hawaii3.830.2%1st Place
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13.11Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.640.0%1st Place
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5.47University of California at Irvine3.430.1%1st Place
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8.71University of Southern California2.570.1%1st Place
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13.6University of California at Berkeley1.570.0%1st Place
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15.73Western Washington University1.020.0%1st Place
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13.43University of California at San Diego1.570.0%1st Place
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7.13Stanford University2.900.1%1st Place
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17.97California State University Monterey Bay0.500.0%1st Place
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15.25University of California at Davis1.120.0%1st Place
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19.09University of Oregon0.150.0%1st Place
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10.46California Poly Maritime Academy2.220.0%1st Place
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15.11University of California at Santa Cruz1.100.0%1st Place
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17.22University of California at Davis0.640.0%1st Place
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17.21University of Washington0.630.0%1st Place
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12.91University of Washington1.690.0%1st Place
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15.84University of California at Berkeley1.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Kaschak | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 14.6% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Hughes | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Philip Gordon | 5.2% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Caleb Cunningham | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Tally Buckstaff | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Peterson | 20.3% | 15.7% | 15.4% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Lund | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Rex Cameron | 12.0% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Rupp | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aubrey Toole | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Debbi Kenote | 1.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 5.7% |
| Matthew Nguyen | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| Benjamin Pedrick | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christina Stege | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 14.8% | 17.7% |
| William Van Trigt | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| Christina Wilson | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 14.8% | 29.5% |
| Scott Doyle | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Bescos | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% |
| Elizabeth Thome | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 13.6% | 12.5% |
| Molly Utter | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 13.4% |
| Alyce Flanagan | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Lauren Amery | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 5.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.