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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.56+5.96vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.13+6.69vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.39+8.67vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.84+1.71vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.72+1.16vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.80+3.85vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97+2.07vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.75+1.91vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College1.44+5.64vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.97-0.70vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.73+2.89vs Predicted
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12Fordham University3.16-3.29vs Predicted
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13Dartmouth College2.87-3.62vs Predicted
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14Fordham University3.25-6.24vs Predicted
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15Cornell University3.14-6.59vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.48-8.86vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook1.41-2.14vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.98-9.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.96Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.69Yale University3.130.0%1st Place
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11.67Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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5.71University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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6.16Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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9.85University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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9.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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9.91Harvard University2.750.0%1st Place
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14.64SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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9.3Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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13.89Connecticut College1.730.0%1st Place
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8.71Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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9.38Dartmouth College2.870.1%1st Place
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7.76Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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7.14Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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14.86SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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8.9Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| Rachel Bryer | 12.9% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kiss | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| August Sturm | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Nick Digiovanni | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 21.6% | 28.7% |
| Robby Gearon | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Rebecca Quirke | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 17.6% | 21.2% |
| Roberto Stevens | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 5.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 11.6% | 18.9% | 33.8% |
| Stewart Draheim | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.