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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College3.56+5.99vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.16+6.66vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97+6.41vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.84+1.77vs Predicted
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5Fordham University3.25+2.98vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.48+1.11vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.87+2.55vs Predicted
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8Harvard University2.75+2.00vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.72-2.89vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.80+0.14vs Predicted
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11Boston University2.97-1.75vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.13-3.14vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.39-1.64vs Predicted
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14Cornell University3.14-5.80vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.98-5.99vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College1.98-2.90vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.44-2.20vs Predicted
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18SUNY Stony Brook1.41-3.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.99Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.66Fordham University3.160.0%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.0%1st Place
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5.77University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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7.98Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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7.11Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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9.55Dartmouth College2.870.0%1st Place
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10.0Harvard University2.750.0%1st Place
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6.11Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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10.14University of Pennsylvania2.800.1%1st Place
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9.25Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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8.86Yale University3.130.1%1st Place
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11.36Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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8.2Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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9.01Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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13.1Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
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14.8SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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14.69SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Roberto Stevens | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| August Sturm | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Rachel Bryer | 13.0% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Nathaniel Johansson | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| Nick Digiovanni | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| Joseph Kiss | 10.3% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 2.4% |
| Robby Gearon | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| Nicolas Hernandez | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 6.2% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.9% |
| Emilia Clementi | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 15.1% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 19.5% | 33.7% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 11.8% | 20.0% | 30.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.