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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.87+8.67vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.72+4.25vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.25+5.19vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.48+2.95vs Predicted
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5Tufts University2.39+6.30vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College3.56+0.72vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.16+1.31vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.84-2.30vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.98+3.99vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.98-0.68vs Predicted
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11Cornell University3.14-2.39vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.80-1.82vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.97-4.03vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.82-4.57vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.97-5.96vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook1.41-1.14vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College1.44-2.24vs Predicted
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18Harvard University2.75-8.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.67Dartmouth College2.870.0%1st Place
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6.25Yale University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.19Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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6.95Brown University3.480.1%1st Place
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11.3Tufts University2.390.0%1st Place
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6.72Bowdoin College3.560.1%1st Place
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8.31Fordham University3.160.1%1st Place
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5.7University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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12.99Connecticut College1.980.0%1st Place
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9.32Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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8.61Cornell University3.140.1%1st Place
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10.18University of Pennsylvania2.800.0%1st Place
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8.97Boston University2.970.1%1st Place
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9.43Yale University2.820.0%1st Place
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9.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.970.1%1st Place
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14.86SUNY Stony Brook1.410.0%1st Place
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14.76SUNY Maritime College1.440.0%1st Place
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9.78Harvard University2.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Johansson | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Joseph Kiss | 8.2% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Shanahan | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Florian Eenkema Van Dijk | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 5.4% |
| Matthew Kaplan | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Roberto Stevens | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Rachel Bryer | 12.4% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Emilia Clementi | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 15.8% | 12.6% |
| Stewart Draheim | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Clark Uhl | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Nicholas Floyd | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| Robby Gearon | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Dylan DiMarchi | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| August Sturm | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Jeremy McCauley | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 16.7% | 34.6% |
| Aidan Molesky | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 10.9% | 19.0% | 32.8% |
| Nick Digiovanni | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.