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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.80+5.91vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.79+5.04vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.50+5.28vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.51+0.66vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.50+3.05vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.86+5.02vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.68+0.58vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.39+0.51vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30+0.25vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.72+1.28vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.20-1.34vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.92-5.35vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.75-1.58vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.88-3.05vs Predicted
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15Yale University3.10-5.12vs Predicted
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16Harvard University2.81-4.89vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College2.90-6.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.91St. Mary's College of Maryland3.800.1%1st Place
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7.04Brown University3.790.1%1st Place
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8.28Boston College3.500.1%1st Place
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4.66Georgetown University4.510.2%1st Place
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8.05Yale University3.500.1%1st Place
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11.02University of Vermont2.860.0%1st Place
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7.58Connecticut College3.680.1%1st Place
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8.51Old Dominion University3.390.1%1st Place
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9.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.0%1st Place
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11.28Tufts University2.720.0%1st Place
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9.66College of Charleston3.200.1%1st Place
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6.65University of Rhode Island3.920.1%1st Place
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11.42Boston University2.750.0%1st Place
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10.95U. S. Naval Academy2.880.0%1st Place
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9.88Yale University3.100.0%1st Place
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11.11Harvard University2.810.0%1st Place
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10.74Eckerd College2.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Megan Magill | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Elizabeth Barry | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Emily Maxwell | 6.7% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% |
| Sydney Bolger | 17.2% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Claire Dennis | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% |
| Alexandra Arntsen | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 11.1% |
| Maggie Shea | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| Morgan Wilson | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| Krysta Rohde | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.2% |
| Meghan Pesch | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% |
| Grace Lucas | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% |
| Amy Hawkins | 8.0% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Caroline Wilhelm | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 14.3% |
| Marissa Lihan | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 10.9% |
| Genoa Warner | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| Morgan Russom | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 13.0% |
| Emilie Mademann | 2.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.