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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+3.56vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.59+3.86vs Predicted
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3Penn State University1.13+4.89vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.73+4.47vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.82-0.32vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.70-0.51vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.92+1.09vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.35-1.41vs Predicted
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9Hampton University0.58-2.06vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.67-1.83vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.60-1.79vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.97-3.86vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.21-1.39vs Predicted
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14American University-0.66-1.60vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland-0.45-3.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.56U. S. Naval Academy2.1614.8%1st Place
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5.86Old Dominion University1.5910.8%1st Place
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7.89Penn State University1.135.6%1st Place
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8.47Christopher Newport University0.733.8%1st Place
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4.68George Washington University1.8215.2%1st Place
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5.49St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7011.9%1st Place
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8.09St. Mary's College of Maryland0.924.5%1st Place
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6.59U. S. Naval Academy1.357.6%1st Place
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6.94Hampton University0.587.8%1st Place
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8.17Virginia Tech0.675.3%1st Place
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9.21Christopher Newport University0.603.7%1st Place
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8.14Old Dominion University0.974.9%1st Place
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11.61William and Mary-0.211.8%1st Place
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12.4American University-0.660.7%1st Place
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11.9University of Maryland-0.451.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Reinecke | 14.8% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Barrett Lhamon | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Joshua Bendura | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| Tyler Wood | 15.2% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mason Cook | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Scott Opert | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Leo Robillard | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Brown | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| James Lilyquist | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Aston Atherton | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 4.9% |
| Gianna Dewey | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Charlotte Stillman | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 19.5% | 22.3% |
| James Cottage | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 19.8% | 36.4% |
| Sophie Grigg | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 13.5% | 22.1% | 25.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.