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📊 Prediction Accuracy
45.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Berkeley1.57+3.31vs Predicted
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2Oregon State University0.88+3.94vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.95+2.95vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University1.75-0.05vs Predicted
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5University of Washington1.53-0.71vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.26+1.51vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University0.52-0.36vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.93-2.30vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University-0.68+0.31vs Predicted
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10University of Oregon0.32-2.87vs Predicted
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11University of Washington1.07-5.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.31University of California at Berkeley1.570.1%1st Place
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5.94Oregon State University0.880.1%1st Place
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5.95University of Washington0.950.1%1st Place
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3.95Western Washington University1.750.2%1st Place
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4.29University of Washington1.530.2%1st Place
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7.51Western Washington University0.260.0%1st Place
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6.64Western Washington University0.520.1%1st Place
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5.7University of Washington0.930.1%1st Place
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9.31Northwestern University-0.680.0%1st Place
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7.13University of Oregon0.320.0%1st Place
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5.26University of Washington1.070.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Sponholtz | 13.5% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Michael Levy | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 3.3% |
| Connor Hughes | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 3.7% |
| Chloe Dawson | 17.4% | 17.0% | 13.7% | 15.3% | 11.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Nathaniel Gordon | 16.9% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Kendall Kracke | 3.8% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 15.3% |
| Ezekiel Ward | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 7.9% |
| Hayden Potter | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 3.1% |
| Kelly Logacho | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 14.4% | 52.8% |
| Sam Reul | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 17.2% | 10.7% |
| Laura Smit | 10.6% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.