← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University4.08+5.36vs Predicted
-
2College of Charleston4.09+4.21vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+5.01vs Predicted
-
42.75+7.41vs Predicted
-
5Stanford University3.74+2.46vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.63vs Predicted
-
7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77+0.33vs Predicted
-
8Roger Williams University3.71-0.51vs Predicted
-
9Boston University3.24+0.49vs Predicted
-
10Bowdoin College3.18+0.02vs Predicted
-
11Harvard University3.60-2.82vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University3.41-2.84vs Predicted
-
13Georgetown University3.06-2.87vs Predicted
-
14Tufts University2.82-3.08vs Predicted
-
15Connecticut College3.21-5.42vs Predicted
-
16Old Dominion University2.55-3.51vs Predicted
-
17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-5.17vs Predicted
-
18Northwestern University1.95-3.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.36Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
-
6.21College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
-
8.01U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
-
11.412.750.0%1st Place
-
7.46Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
-
10.63St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
-
7.33Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
-
7.49Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
-
9.49Boston University3.240.0%1st Place
-
10.02Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
-
8.18Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
-
9.16George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
-
10.13Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
-
10.92Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
-
9.58Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
-
12.49Old Dominion University2.550.0%1st Place
-
11.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
-
14.3Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 10.4% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Nikole Barnes | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Erik Weis | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% |
| Will La Dow | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 4.3% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.9% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| Martim Anderson | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Ravi Parent | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% |
| Jack McGuire | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 3.1% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Kai Friesecke | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% |
| Jack Bitney | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
| James Jacob | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 13.8% |
| Michael Munger | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.7% |
| Mark Davies | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 33.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.