← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University4.08+5.37vs Predicted
-
2Tufts University2.82+9.56vs Predicted
-
3Connecticut College3.21+6.89vs Predicted
-
4Roger Williams University3.71+3.52vs Predicted
-
5College of Charleston4.09+1.07vs Predicted
-
6Harvard University3.60+2.03vs Predicted
-
72.75+4.54vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University2.55+4.27vs Predicted
-
9Georgetown University3.06+1.27vs Predicted
-
10Northwestern University1.95+4.53vs Predicted
-
11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.27vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University3.41-2.88vs Predicted
-
13Bowdoin College3.18-3.38vs Predicted
-
14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71-2.60vs Predicted
-
15Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-7.71vs Predicted
-
16Boston University3.24-6.35vs Predicted
-
17U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65-9.07vs Predicted
-
18Stanford University3.74-10.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.37Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
-
11.56Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
-
9.89Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
-
7.52Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
-
6.07College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
-
8.03Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
-
11.542.750.0%1st Place
-
12.27Old Dominion University2.550.0%1st Place
-
10.27Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
-
14.53Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
-
10.73St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
-
9.12George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
-
9.62Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
-
11.4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
-
7.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
-
9.65Boston University3.240.0%1st Place
-
7.93U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
-
7.22Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Barrows | 10.0% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jack Bitney | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 6.8% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Martim Anderson | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 11.7% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nick Sertl | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Erik Weis | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% |
| James Jacob | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 13.7% |
| Roger Dorr | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% |
| Mark Davies | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 38.9% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% |
| Kai Friesecke | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Jack McGuire | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Michael Munger | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 11.2% | 9.2% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Ravi Parent | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 3.1% |
| Nikole Barnes | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Will La Dow | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.