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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston4.09+5.29vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.71+5.84vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+8.97vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.24+5.39vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+2.77vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.59vs Predicted
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7Yale University4.08-0.84vs Predicted
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82.75+3.48vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.21+0.62vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-2.44vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.60-2.85vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University2.55+0.64vs Predicted
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13George Washington University3.41-4.31vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University1.95+0.10vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College3.18-5.25vs Predicted
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16Georgetown University3.06-5.64vs Predicted
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17Tufts University2.82-5.62vs Predicted
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18Stanford University3.74-10.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.29College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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7.84Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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11.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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9.39Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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10.59St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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6.16Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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11.482.750.0%1st Place
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9.62Connecticut College3.210.0%1st Place
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7.56Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.15Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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12.64Old Dominion University2.550.0%1st Place
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8.69George Washington University3.410.1%1st Place
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14.1Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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9.75Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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10.36Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
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11.38Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
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7.26Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Peschiera | 10.6% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Martim Anderson | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Michael Munger | 2.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 9.7% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 4.7% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% |
| Ian Barrows | 10.7% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Erik Weis | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 8.3% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Ty Ingram | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| James Jacob | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 16.9% |
| Kai Friesecke | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.9% |
| Mark Davies | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 13.3% | 32.8% |
| Jack McGuire | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| Roger Dorr | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.1% |
| Jack Bitney | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 7.3% |
| Will La Dow | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.