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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+7.09vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston4.09+4.24vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.60+5.27vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.08+2.11vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.71+6.57vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.74+1.44vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.21+2.65vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.77-0.76vs Predicted
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9George Washington University3.41-0.28vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.24-0.21vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.71-3.25vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College3.18-1.88vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-2.54vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.82-3.05vs Predicted
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152.75-3.48vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University2.55-3.54vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.95-2.46vs Predicted
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18Georgetown University3.06-7.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.24College of Charleston4.090.1%1st Place
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8.27Harvard University3.600.1%1st Place
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6.11Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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11.57Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.710.0%1st Place
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7.44Stanford University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.65Connecticut College3.210.1%1st Place
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7.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.770.1%1st Place
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8.72George Washington University3.410.0%1st Place
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9.79Boston University3.240.1%1st Place
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7.75Roger Williams University3.710.1%1st Place
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10.12Bowdoin College3.180.0%1st Place
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10.46St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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10.95Tufts University2.820.0%1st Place
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11.522.750.0%1st Place
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12.46Old Dominion University2.550.0%1st Place
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14.54Northwestern University1.950.0%1st Place
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10.08Georgetown University3.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikole Barnes | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Stefano Peschiera | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nick Sertl | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% |
| Ian Barrows | 12.1% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Michael Munger | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 9.6% |
| Will La Dow | 7.9% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Hugh MacGillivray | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% |
| Ty Ingram | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Kai Friesecke | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| Ravi Parent | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% |
| Martim Anderson | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Jack McGuire | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.4% |
| Jack Bitney | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.4% |
| Erik Weis | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| James Jacob | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 14.5% |
| Mark Davies | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 36.1% |
| Roger Dorr | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.